When Eintracht Frankfurt made it all the way to the Europa League semi-finals two seasons ago before being knocked out by Chelsea, Adi Hütter’s side were one of the best attacking sides in Europe. Sébastien Haller, Luka Jović and Filip Kostić were a formidable trio that helped propel Die Adler to the cusp of a European final for the first time since the 1979-80 season when they won the old UEFA Cup. After that season concluded, both Haller and Jović get the big money moves that were expected, Haller went to West Ham United for a fee that could rise to £45 million while Jović moved to Spanish giants Real Madrid for a fee of €60 million. Meanwhile, no move arose for Kostić that summer, and since then, there have been very minimal rumors linking the Serb with a move away from the Deutsche Bank Park. This data analysis piece will dive into the possible reasons behind this, and also what clubs make sense for Kostić if he were to move.
The numbers
Since moving to Eintracht Frankfurt from Hamburger SV in 2018, Kostić has been a familiar presence down the left-hand side in Adi Hütter’s 3-4-2-1 formation. Under Markus Gisdol at Hamburg during the 2017/18 Bundesliga season, Kostić normally played as the left attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1 system.
Kostić finished that season with 5 goals and 1 assist, while taking 2.46 shots per 90, and contributing only 1.12 key passes per 90. He also underperformed both his xG and xA that season, but that could be put down to different reasons. He also had an xG per 90 of 0.32, and an xA per 90 of 0.12.
In his first season at Frankfurt, Kostić finished the season with one more goal scored than the prior season, but also contributed 9 more assists. His shots per 90 dropped drastically from 2.46 to 1.85 shots per 90, which shows that he improved his shot selection. His key passes per 90 also shot up to 1.40, with his xA per 90 also skyrocketing from 0.12 to 0.32. And since that first season in Frankfurt, his contribution has continued to grow. His xA numbers have slowly continued to rise, making him one of the most proficient chance creators in the Bundesliga. While the goal numbers have dropped this season, everything else has steadily increased. He already has 10 assists through about half the Bundesliga season so far, 1 shy of his total tally from last season. Also, according to one-versus-one.com, Kostić also ranks in the top three in the Bundesliga for assists, key passes, chance creation, and expected assists All these numbers show that Kostić is a consistent performer, so why has he not yet secured that big money move away from the club like the others before him? There is one reason as to why a move may not as of yet, materialized.
The grass isn’t always greener on the other side
As the old saying goes, “the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.” After both Haller and Jović both completed their big money moves to West Ham and Real Madrid respectively, expectations were placed upon them to become instant successes. Almost two seasons on from their big money moves, both players no longer play (in Jović’s case, temporarily) for the clubs that signed them permanently for those fees. After 1 ½ seasons in the Premier League, Haller was sold to Ajax this past January for €22.5 million, with West Ham taking a major loss on their investment. Jović has had an even worse time at Madrid, first with playing time hard to come by behind Karim Benzema, and second, not performing when called upon. Jović returned to Frankfurt on loan in January, and scored the same amount of goals in 25 minutes than he did in 1 ½ seasons in the Spanish capital. Taking a deeper look at their numbers since departing tells part of the story.
Both players took a heavy drop in production after leaving the German side, with the xG per 90 of both players dropping, as well as their G+A numbers, with both players losing a large percentage of their production. In his two seasons in Germany, Haller was involved in a goal every 122 minutes, whereas at West Ham that number plummeted to a goal or assist every 289 minutes. For Jović, he averaged a goal or assist every 103 minutes, while at Madrid he has averaged a goal or an assist every 185 minutes. Now, since returning to Frankfurt, he has averaged a goal or assist every 78 minutes. Now I am not saying that both Haller and Jović are products of the system put in place by Adi Hütter, but that the system Hütter has in place got the best out of them. In regards to Kostić, it’s possible this could also be the case.
So, which clubs should look to sign him?
In this section, I will look at four different clubs that should have an interest in signing Kostić in the summer. I will list a realistic option, intriguing option, outside the box option, and the best option in my opinion. So, without further ado…
Realistic option: Borussia Mönchengladbach
With Marco Rose set to leave the German club at the end of the season for rivals Borussia Dortmund, Mönchengladbach are on the hunt for a new manager for next season and beyond. One name who has been heavily linked with the German side is Frankfurt boss Adi Hütter. If Hütter were to get the job at Borussia Park, there would be no reason not to assume why Kostić could possibly follow him an hour and a half west to Gladbach. When a new manager comes into a football club, tactics and formations usually change, along with plenty of new faces coming in over time. If Hütter were to come in at Gladbach, Kostić should be the first player he looks to poach from his former club.
Marco Rose has recently tried implementing a back three system at Gladbach, with him alternating between veteran Swede Oscar Wendt and young Austrian Valentino Lazaro at left midfielder. Between the two of them combined, they have key passes per 90 of 1.17 (0.43 for Wendt, 0.74 for Lazaro), while this season alone, Kostić has 2.68 key passes per 90. For xA per 90, Wendt and Lazaro combine for a measly 0.09 xA per 90 (Wendt = 0.04, Lazaro = 0.05). Kostić meanwhile has a staggering 0.42 xA per 90, one of the best in the league. Wendt is aging and better in a back four, while Lazaro has the potential to play as a wide midfielder in a three back, but does not have nearly the same amount of contribution going forward than Kostić. If Hütter left to manage Gladbach, the fit would be perfect.
Intriguing Option: Inter Milan
Antonio Conte lives and dies by a three at the back system. He demands a tremendous work rate going back, and heavy contribution going forward for his wide midfield players. Kostić fits that mold. Currently at Inter the two players vying for that position are Ivan Perisić and Ashley Young. After being sent out on loan to Bayern Munich last season, Perisić has come back and cemented himself as the starting left midfielder for Antonio Conte’s side. Perisić currently has 6 goal contributions in 21 Serie A appearances this season (2 goals and 4 assists), with key passes per 90 of 1.77, xG per 90 of 0.25, and an xA per 90 of 0.22. For Ashley Young, through 17 Serie A appearances he has 0 goals and 2 assists, with key passes per 90 of 1.79, xG per 90 of 0.07, and xA per 90 of 0.10.
With Young possibly leaving Inter at the end of the season, and Perisić being 32 years old, Conte may look to find a new wide midfielder to start opposite Achraf Hakimi on the left side. Kostić would be a good fit for Conte’s system, and Conte could have the same impact on him that he had on Marcos Alonso at Chelsea. With Kostić only 28 years old, he is still in his prime, and Conte could be the manager to get double figures in both goals and assists out of the Serbian international.
Outside the box option: Chelsea
How about a possible move to the Premier League? Since Thomas Tuchel has come through the door at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea’s fortunes have changed, partially thanks to a formation shift by the German tactician. During the end of his spell at PSG, and so far at the beginning of his spell at Chelsea, Tuchel has set Chelsea up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, reminiscent of Antonio Conte’s time at the London based club. Out of favor under Frank Lampard, Marcos Alonso has now come back into favor under Tuchel, with big money summer signing Ben Chilwell resigned to the bench. Tactically, Alonso thrives in a back three system, while Chilwell is much better as a full back in a four. Aside from those two, Tuchel does not have many other choices of players to play in this position, so a move for a player like Kostić could be an option.
Tuchel knows the player well from his time in Germany managing Mainz and Dortmund, so it would be no surprise if Tuchel had not at least kept a close eye on his development over the last few seasons. While both Alonso and Kostić are similar players, the pace of Kostić prevents him from being caught out as much defensively as Alonso, plus, Kostić contributes more going forward. Since coming back into favor under Tuchel, Alonso has 1.17 key passes per 90, along with an xG of 0.13 and an xA of 0.15. Even prime Alonso at Chelsea comes nowhere close to the numbers that Kostić has put up at Frankfurt. While it is no guarantee that Kostić could have similar numbers in a much more physical league, I would not be surprised if Tuchel had at least some interest in the Serbian this summer.
Best option: Eintracht Frankfurt
Unsurprisingly, in my opinion, the best option for Filip Kostić would be to stay at Eintracht Frankfurt. For starters, there is every possibility that Hütter stays at Frankfurt with the club currently sitting in 4th place in the Bundesliga and on track for at least Europa League football next season. Also, Hütter is apparently not the only option being considered for the Gladbach job, with RB Salzburg’s Jesse Marsch, Werder Bremen’s Florian Kohfeldt, and BSC Young Boys Gerardo Seoane being linked with the job.
Also, Frankfurt is an environment where Kostić has been comfortably performing at a high level consistently. He is a perfect fit in the system that Hütter plays, and there are no guarantees that he would succeed if he left the club. Former teammates Sébastien Haller and Luka Jović are prime examples of this. With Frankfurt currently flying domestically, and on track for European football again next season, there would be little reason for Kostić to leave the club.
Conclusion
While I feel that Filip Kostić would be best suited to staying with Frankfurt, I would not be surprised if any of the other three clubs mentioned became linked with securing the services of the Serbian international this summer. With Kostić approaching 29 years old, time is running out to secure a big money move to a consistent Champions League caliber club.